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Jamie Burton KC and Michael Spencer (instructed by Greater Manchester Law Centre) for the Claimant Colin Thomann (instructed by Government Legal Department) for the Defendant Hearing date: 15/12/22 ____________________
For the purposes of Agreed Issue (1) the review which is directly relevant started in July 2021 and culminated in the decision on 11 November 2021 to accept a recommendation made on 29 October 2021.
The Time Lag Fix has always been operated imperfectly. That is because the CPI index used for the Fix is itself out of date by the time that the rate is set, and certainly by the date it is implemented. When the weekly cash payment rate of �36.95 was retained (October 2016) after the 2016 Review, the Time Lag Fix was using CPI at December 2015 to update outdated 2014 ONS:L10% data. When the weekly cash payment rate of �37.75 was adopted in October 2017 (wef 6.2.18) after the 2017 Review, the Time Lag Fix was using CPI at October 2017 to update outdated 2015/16 ONS:L1% data.
It is common ground that this 'justification by a careful investigation' approach is applicable when considering Issue (1) Ground (i) in the present case.
Alongside these increased measures of past annual inflation, being used as the measure of the cost of living, there were Bank of England ("BOE") forecasts contained in BOE published Monetary Policy Reports:
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